Democratic Stability in Bangladesh 

If the past indicates the future, there is considerable doubt about the stability of democracy in Bangladesh. Undoubtedly, Bangladesh's establishment in 1971 was based on democratic values. However, after its independence from Pakistan, the democratic process gave rise to autocratic and hereditary rule, which prevailed for about half a century.  Every opportunity to stabilize democracy in the country has invariably failed. 

The people of then-East Pakistan voted overwhelmingly for the Awami League (AL) giving it a clear majority in the election of 1970 in Pakistan (East and West combined).  When the military ruler of Pakistan, instead of accepting the election result and handing over the government power to the AL, tried to suppress East Pakistan by launching a genocide, killing intellectuals, and jailing political leaders, its people revolted against Pakistan and began their liberation war.  After nine months of the war, East Pakistan was finally liberated as Bangladesh.  The AL formed the government in 1972 under the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the recognized father of the nation.  Sheikh Mujib consolidated his authority through an election in 1973 and began to exercise his autocratic rule, which incited political violence that killed about 5000 people during the 1973-74 period.  He banned political parties, and independent newspapers, and established one-party rule under “BAKSAL” in 1975.  His rule, however, didn’t last too long as Sheik Mujib was assassinated in August 1975. 

Following Sheik Mujib’s assassination, the country experienced serious political turmoil for a couple of years.  In the end, army General Ziaur Rahman, the declarer of Bangladesh’s independence movement, took control of the government in 1977.  He was expected to arrange an election to set up the national government.  Instead, after grabbing power he arranged a referendum to legitimize his rule, established the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), repelled army rebellions by killing thousands of soldiers, and then held rigged elections in 1979 to stay in power.  He managed to rule the country up until he was assassinated in May 1981.   

Then General Hussain Ershad seized power through a military coup in 1982.  He followed his army predecessor to legitimize his rule by swiftly establishing his Jatiyo Party and holding a rigged election in 1986.  During Ershad’s dictatorial rule, Sheikh Hasina, daughter of Sheik Mujib, was elevated to the reorganized AL leadership, and Khaleda Zia, wife of General Zia, was elevated to the leadership of BNP.  After these two ladies, with their inherited political power, formed a strong united front to demand a fair election under a caretaker government to be set up with independent members headed by a retired justice, the Ershad administration eventually agreed to arrange the election in 1991.  This election was considered fair, and the BNP was the winner.  Subsequently, control of the administration switched hands between the BNP and AL through two more such managed elections, until 2006. 

While the three elections before 2006 were fair, the AL and BNP parties came under full control of Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia, and only their loyalists were allowed to run for parliamentary seats in the elections.  After a period of political turmoil instigated by both leaders to influence the next election, a military coup forced the caretaker government to resign on January 11, 2007.  The military-controlled government received popular support for saving the country from severe turmoil and the people expected it to steer the country to democratic rule.  Considering how the two ladies had used their parties to create chaos, the military government put both leaders under house arrest.  It instigated the “Minus Two” movement to remove both ladies from power.  In the end, however, India was said to have influenced the military government to arrange for AL to win the 2008 election.  

After gaining power, Sheikh Hasina worked methodically to turn the AL government into an absolute dictatorial state by cracking down on opposition parties, civil society, and the press.  The Human Rights Watch group described the situation in its 2021 report: “Bangladesh’s Awami League-led government doubled down on an authoritarian crackdown on free speech, arresting critics, and censoring media.  Arrests under the abusive Digital Security Act increased dramatically.  Impunity for abuses by security forces, including enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings, remained pervasive”.  Because of the gravity of the situation, the U.S. government imposed mandatory sanctions against some members of the special police force (RAB). 

The AL regime abolished the caretaker government system in 2011.  So, the elections that followed were no longer considered democratic or fair.  In these rigged elections, people were enticed to vote for AL, and false votes were cast for them.  Thus, no opposition party would have won if they had participated. Through such election malpractice, the AL tried to convince the world that it had won the 2014, 2018, and 2024 elections.  In the process, Sheikh Hasina brought the bureaucrats, police, army, and judiciary under her dictatorial rule.  Corruption and money laundering have become very common in the country. 

The administration finally collapsed on August 5, 2024, when Sheikh Hasina fled to India after weeks of student protests. The protests were initiated in early July against the reinstatement of the 30 percent job quota for ruling party supporters who claimed to be descendants of freedom fighters of 1971.  The government's harsh response, with over a thousand killed and over ten thousand arrested, led to widespread civilian outrage.  With popular support, the students quickly changed their goals and organized a national movement to oust the regime.  The students succeeded after the army refused to fight them. 

The Nobel Laureate Mohammad Yunus was given the charge of the interim government on August 7, 2024, and he has been working hard to reform and reorient the country toward the rule of law with independent institutions.  He has arranged several commissions to put forward reform proposals and begun to implement changes.  Astonishingly, the Economic Review Commission discovered that about 16 billion dollars had been laundered annually, while the national debt had reached 165 billion dollars during Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule.  All members of her government are now being investigated.  Her son in the U.S. and her niece in the U.K. are also under investigation for their role in money laundering.  The expectations are that with world support the interim government may succeed in recovering some of the laundered money. 

However, the biggest hurdle the interim government is facing in conducting reforms is the BNP’s repeated demand with outside support for an early election (which they expect to win).  If the interim government fails to implement key reforms with constitutional changes to establish separation of powers before holding the next election, the undemocratic family-controlled BNP is likely to come to power and follow policies to solidify its power.  If that happens, this might once again jeopardize the democratic stability of the country. 

- Thursday, January 30, 2025